Saturday, May 31, 2008

Earthquake alerts- perhaps hopeless

It is a great dream of earthquake bureaucrats to either have a 2 day 'weather forecast' of earthquakes, or to have a 30 second warning. This would save them the difficult choice of tearing down old schools, housing and infrastructure. I don't think it's going to happen. There are too many bizarre things in the earthquake world, and these guys always want to centralize things, to make life easier for them.

The problem with centralization is that all the shit hits the fan, and then gets sucked up into the black hole of the central processor. Nothing can take this load, and they can't think of every possibility. It is the true failure of central command economies, such as the old Soviet Union, and the modern US agricultural policy. These things never work!

We need more basic science, such as decent seismic monitoring, and some open discussion on infrastructure. This 'cone of silence' and the 'pay wall' don't get us very far.

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