Thursday, January 14, 2010

The Next 'Haiti Earthquake'

This fault has a recorded history of 'marching' down the track, but it takes over 100 years to work it's way to Jamaica. I was just thinking that this fault should be able to pop out M8's, but it wouldn't make any difference! I would have predicted the same damage for an M6 at the same spot. The only difference would be in the size of the aftershocks, which must have done a number on the damaged buildings.

So where would be the other spots where I would get the same 'cringe' (number of deaths) if I saw it on the old ticker-tape?

Lima, Peru - old Spanish colonial, bursting with people, urban M6 probably saturates.

Padang - but you need a tsunami M8+

Istanbul - probably saturates at M7, since they have done some work.

China - any place, M7 or greater

Tokyo, but that has to be M8 or greater, right under the city.

Cairo - M7 under the city.

Too horrible to think about any more, but all these are at about the same odds as Haiti.

Developed cities would have far less deaths, but great economic damage to the world (at the same odds).

New York City - urban M6 - all transport shut down

Toronto - urban M6 - all power shut down

Montreal - urban M5.5 because of all the Mo-Mafie buildings!

Lisbon - M8 offshore

And of course, all of California. M8+

Like I said, these are the places where I would say 'Oh crap!' if I saw a close earthquake.

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