Monday, May 27, 2013

Nice cottage weekend

Very cold at night, but lovely during the day.  We stayed the extra day which was glorious.  The dragonflies are out in full, so there are no blackflies.  The mosquitoes are starting up, but they stay quiet until the dragonflies go to bed.  Too cold for them to get wild yet at night.

Can't even touch the water!  Brrrrrr!

Friday, May 24, 2013

Bruce waste thing wakes up Michigan Senate


Nice to see that things are proceeding.  Looking at the comments, they have some boosters.  My comments on the comments:

-the rock is a Karst formation, or more properly called Paleocollapse.  The rock is not 'solid' under their chosen zone, but rather they found a layer of limestone that is relatively intact.  Getting to that zone will be fun, and they will have to inject trainloads of grout, and pump out enough brine to fill a lake.  None of which is mentioned in the hearings.  I never worry about this, because I don't think they can get down the first fifty feet.  This is all just a paper exercise, much like the Bruce plans for putting a nuclear reactor on Lake Erie.

New earthquake mechanism opens up in Arkansas - M3.5

With this earthquake, I can safely say my prediction was OK, with a new mechanism opening up, much like the last big one.  This is totally due to injection, and we must expect a NE line of earthquakes, either down to the town, or up to the lake.  Unfortunately, when we get the M4.5, they will stop the injection.  :(

Russia-Pacific earthquake M8.3, very deep

Although large, this was 600 km deep, at the bottom of the descending slab.  These things never do anything.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Tonga earthquake - M7.4

Hot off the wire!  This size of earthquake is nothing for this area, but it is such a beautiful map.  That subduction zone is so crisp, you know it must generate M9's every few hundred years.  Even the full-length M9.3!  But there are a lot of these big zones, so who knows what will be next?

Linux- Trying to get Google voice stuff working

Linux is savage on devices.  You don't want to have anything modern!  However, old devices should work fine, unless you like a modern kernel, and then things might not work for a while.  Devices are on the bottom of the list.

I was trying to get my Logitech usb webcam working again.  It used to work, until all the latest updates.  After a long search, I found that Alsa was misnaming it the front speakers.  Then I changed the Google chat settings, and it's all good for a hangout, which I generally never use.

But in comes the new vocal search.  With everything set up for the Google talk plugin, you would think it works.  But, no, they don't talk to each other.  Google Voice search chooses whatever it wants for a microphone, and you can't do anything about it.  This bothers a lot of people with multiple mikes, not just Linux.  No solution for this one yet.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Arkansas M3.4 earthquake

Silly me, just writing that those injection quakes would never mount to anything.  This one is quite a distance, but I suppose if they are injecting at Clinton, they are injecting here.

An M3.4 is getting to the size where a mechanism may develop.  Those M2's are way too small.  We have to see how this develops, since they are injecting, and I'm quite surprised by it, after the last time.

Update:  More quakes are showing it to be a fine mechanism, just like before.  Now the thrust area is developing, can't wait to see the shear wing!

Arkansas injection earthquakes

These are tightly clustered around two injection wells.  For a while, I had thought the lake had something to do with it.  There appears to be no mechanism associated with these, so it probably isn't close to a megathrust, unlike the first Arkansas sequence.  Nevertheless, they are injecting into the Precambrian, so things can happen.  Personally, I would just let these things go, and try to get more scientific information, such as time histories of flow and pressure.

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Unacceptable Nuclear Response to Earthquake


In a release, the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission said the quake had no effect on that site, its National Research Universal Reactor, or any other nuclear facility in the country. A release from Chalk River confirmed that a site walkdown showed no damage at the labs.

Unfortunately we will get this same response for any size of earthquake in any plant.  A blind-eyed walkdown is not a good thing.  We really need some velocity readings (PGV).  The Chalk River site may amplify at the top of structures by 100 times.  That's why I call it a Seismic Death Trap.

I don't have the energy to do anything but I will give it the gravest Jane Austen insult - Bad Form!

State of earthquake insurance in Canada

Somebody had mentioned that this was difficult to get in the GTA, and there was a $25,000 deductible.  I would like some more feedback on this.

If you have a brick house on a swamp, then get the insurance.  The $25k is nothing when the bricks fall off and all the plaster cracks.  You will know you are on a swamp if you felt this last earthquake strongly.  Also you can check the difficulty of sinking post holes.  The main areas are lower Hamilton, High Park and the Beaches.  Although I always think in terms of larger earthquakes, an M5 in the lake basin must be considered extremely likely.

If you are on solid ground you should not have felt this earthquake at ground level.  I'm on hard silt and felt it very lightly on the second floor.  Secure valuable knick-knacks with velcro or seismic wax which you can get on the Internet.  Do not have heavy books and stuff over your bed.  There are some modern houses right in the sag pond of the Hamilton fault.  Secure your stuff!  Get insurance!

Monday, May 20, 2013

Dragonflies to the rescue!

Wow, what a nice long weekend!  Too bad the blackflies were ferocious.  Our end of the lake gets the worst blackflies because of geology, but then we get the most dragonflies.  They just started coming out this weekend, and by next weekend all blackflies will be terminated.  These are the really big dragonflies, vacuums of the skies.  :)

Water is like ice -- I had to keep my feet in it for a time while fixing the dock.  That was good for my new neighbour who caught his very first lake trout.  They only come up with freezing water.

Friday, May 17, 2013

Results in for wussy Toronto earthquake

Here are the results from SOSN.  Like I assumed, our closest seismometer read 0.1 mm/s, whereas that other big earthquake was about 1.  Pembrooke looks like they got the maximum shot at 1 mm/s.  This is definitely more in line with an M4.4.

Also I got 10 times more hits on my blog for 2007.  Ah well, we can always wait for another one...  :)

Toronto Earthquake a Washout

Looking at all the news I think this earthquake is more like the USGS M4.4 and not an M5.2.  It certainly wasn't as big as the last one!

The local effects of an earthquake are determined by the peak ground velocity (PGV) measured on the spot.  This can be derived from the seismometers we have all over Ontario, but probably won't be done soon, unless I pester people.  You can definitely feel about 0.5 mm/sec.  But damage needs about 500 mm/s.  Soft ground will amplify about 10 times.  A soft-story condo on soft ground will go to 100!

This was not felt on our ground floor on firm ground, so I am guess a general PGV of 0.3 mm/s, since I felt it very lightly on the second floor, which probably amplifies by 2.  Again, I think we are a factor of 2 to 3 below the last panic.

A real earthquake under Hamilton will produce 5 cm/s on rock, and huge amplifications elsewhere.  The odds are the same as other places, so it is best not to ignore it.  We in Ontario are exemplary in totally ignoring earthquake issues.  

A Fine Ottawa Earthquake

The USGS is calling it an M5 earthquake.

They have it more into Quebec, but the Canadians were calling Ontario and an M4.8.  I felt it upstairs as a low rumble that rattled the knick-knack case.  Obviously, I should have that secured!  If you felt this strongly in Toronto, you are on a swamp and should get earthquake insurance.  I'm sure people were rattled up in Ottawa.  Not much in the news.

Earthquakes in this area come as no surprise, the M5's are common.  It is an area with lots of water, and severe glacial uplift strains.  Within the main zone, I feel that the earthquakes are constrained to M5 because of the type of rock, and massive random fracturing.  Along the Ottawa River, however, there is a major failed rift zone, and all these M5's build up the chance for an M6 or 7 here.

Canada now puts it in Quebec with an M5.1.

wrong stuff...

Cancel that!  Still an M5 with an M4 aftershock.  I still think the M5 is overrated until I hear stories of office buildings being evacuated.  :)

Still weird with the USGS now calling a single M4.4

Toronto earthquake?

Definitely felt the whole sequence of a distant M5 right now.  Unfortunately, we are rather slow in Canada on the reporting aspect.  I don't have Twitter either.  Could be just some major ground thumping.   I'll keep looking.

Earthquake confirmed - Braeside On.  Where the heck is that?

Yeah, felt an earthquake!  Must have emptied the office towers in Ottawa again.  :)  They tho thilly!

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Tomatoes In

Planted the tomatoes today.  I'm not like my old neighbour who obsesses over his.  He has them staked already, and has probably given them their steroids.  :)  They are perfect!  I have a real problem with these things as we disappear to the cottage, just at the time that the weeds attack everything, and the drought hits.  Every year I try something different, and this year I am using landscape cloth, and just letting the plants sprawl.  My neighbour is horrified!  Last year I did this without the cloth, and still got a lot of tomatoes, and I'm hoping the cloth stops contact with the ground, and subsequent rot.  I really want the world's laziest tomatoes!

My estimate on the weather is that we have reverted 10 years.  I hope it isn't 20 years with a freezing June.    I suspect we'll use cottage sauna a bit more this year.  Can't wait to see the 'official' world temperature for this year!  A setback of 10-20 years would be good enough to blow the carbon correlation, I just hope it doesn't go any further!

Ontario fruit tree spray 2013

Time to put on the second spray after the petals have fallen.  I have some trouble with my pear tree which shows yellow spots.  I completely lost my dwarf cherry tree of 15 years, probably because I couldn't put on super-killer fungicide.  I use a mix of Home Defence and a copper fungicide, fairly strong.  This has proven to be good for the apples and plums, and hopefully the pear tree will produce this year.

Up at the cottage, we have a weak season of blackflies.  These are easily kept at bay on the deck with Off deck candles.  I expect the dragonfly squad to arrive this weekend, which will wipe the blackflies out.  Mosquitoes will now come at night, and a deck candle is good for them.  Costco has the stuff on sale right now.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Probiotic Water





Fresh, bubbling 2 billion year old water.  Sample the very beginning of life.  This will be a hit on the European circuit this year.  :)

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Whales and Physics


A lesson on the application of physics to everyday life.

Background:  Nothing to do with whales

The main reason that the Darlington upgrade is going to be a fiasco is that there is no physics in their seismic qualification procedures.  Put that to modern equipment, and everything fails.  Case in point - When I was with the old company, one department feathered its nest with fancy seismic analysis.  The physics pointed to 'experience data' which showed no problem with piping.  The basic physics was that these systems experienced dynamic live loads 10 times that of a seismic input.  The old analysis, however, showed that the pipes would fail, until they ran much more expensive analysis (and overtime), and then it barely passed.  :)

Now Whales

We are starting to have better physics for whales.  The non-physics approach is like piping analysis which relies on vague stories, and old wives tales.  For whales, the common belief that that a seismic air gun blows their eardrums or something.  This is as strong as tons of other phoney correlations, like you-know-what.

Science is now showing that if you don't blow an airgun right beside the whale, they may experience the sound pressure of someone shouting, or a lighting strike on water, which happens all the time.  Yet, they themselves produce the sound pressures of a roaring jet engine.  Therefore, there is no stress on them, which is shown by observation (experience data).  Now, what are you going to believe?

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Weather from Hell

So we were up in beautiful Warsaw, Ontario, home of the Warsaw Caves.  When I was a kid we went there, and I went deep in, trailing a string to get back.  Fun times.

Daughter and her friend signed up to do this gruelling adventure:  mud biking, canoeing and running, called Storm the Trent.  The bad weather was supposed to hold off for the day, but it came with a vengeance.  While the poor girls were stuck in the woods, the leaders came back from biking to get in the canoes.  We had this 10 minute down-blow that I swear hit 70 km an hour, with jagged ice pellets the size of peas.  Some people flipped in the icy water just 20 feet off.  They cut off the canoe starts which ended the race for the slow people.  I eventually saw one guy finish the race before we cut out and left, with our girls in a state of hypothermia.

On the g+ I was staying out of the debate on climate science.  My opinion has always been it's a spurious correlation without a speck of physics, like 'earthquakes and clouds'.  But someone said that I would soon be happy when it turned cold and put this whole thing in the dustbin.  NO I WON'T!  The only way we turn off this Carbon Ponzi Scheme is when I start freezing to death in the summer, like I did today.  Keep up the temperatures, and this whole non-physics carbon thing!  Yeah for those climate people that can't do math!  We want warmth!  :)

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Ontario - Endless Incompetence

One article

Ok, now I am getting crotchety again.  This means I will probably fall off the radar, and stop anything internetish.  I find it is not healthy for me to bitch.  But before I go, we play the game of.


Bruce Waste Storage

No physics at all in the concept.  Situated on the world's worst rock, it is kept going by the need to spend scads of money.  God knows what it is estimated at, but they forget lots of things like grout.  Multiple of at least 10.  Your choice may vary.

Darlington Rebuild

Early death due to a major design flaw, this plant will be replaced exactly like it is.  Led by people without physics, they don't know a tenth of the major worm bombs they have yet to face.  Let's go for 5 here, but a lot will be hidden.

Green Communism

This is what the guy in the article wants.  Absolutely no physics at all in the whole global warming thing, just philosophy.  Massive programs run by government are due to fail.  A multiple of 10 since this never works.

*Sometimes if I approach these things with humour, I can last a bit longer.  :)  

Requiem for a Nuclear Plant


Chiarelli said that some insiders are pushing for a go-slow approach.

When I retired from the Big Company, I thought the new nuclear plant would give me extra income.  Alas, it never came, and now looks like it never will.  :(

The only solution that would have worked would have been 4 Chinese AP1000's on the Wesleyville site.  We would poach thousands of Chinese engineers, just like we poached from Britain for the existing nuclear plants.  Unfortunately, politics caused things to drift to an impossible configuration.

Friday, May 3, 2013

My birthday earthquakes

I'll accept these two beauties as my birthday earthquakes.  Below M2, they only exist because of dense instrumentation.  Still they are part of the group triggered by the dammed lake.  We hope they are not part of a growing mechanism and everything continues to stay at the 2 level.  I often wonder what Virginia would have looked like had they such instruments before that M6.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Linux is kind to old machines

I have an old amd64 single processor machine which I just use mainly as a disk farm.  I had no trouble putting on the latest kernel 3.9 and it runs better.  Try that with other operating systems!  Perhaps this is kinder to the planet.  :)