I give it a 1% because Big Bruce Guy (I'll build a nuclear plant anywhere) has bought a house near Darlington. It all hinges on how much he'll soak the Liberals for. If I were him I'd buy a house for odds as low as 1 in 1000. If nothing happens, then sell it at no loss, but something does, you couldn't buy a big fancy house for love or money.
I go with this article.
And this picture.
Well, come on, all you fracking protesters, and Suziki-pipeline protesters. Huge solar farmers (farms) are cutting down forests in Ontario. And windmill farms give us headaches. As well, all these stupid things only work in Ontario at 5% capacity. They will never get back the energy that was pumped into them.
Even our dear Liberals may have, or might get somebody who can do the math. As well, the Darlington refurb is trying to defy physics*, and Pickering is gasping. What to do? What to do?
Oh yeah, we can rely on US fracking for cheap natural gas. Only that each little bit of that gas involves injecting waste water deep under Oklahoma where all the deep bacteria are getting slaughtered. You know they will fight back with earthquakes. Exactly 5 years from now they will get M6 earthquakes, and 5 years from that the M7's. But natural gas production will drop faster than the Russian Rouble.
I don't think organic farming will save us all. Even for that all those organic farms need electricity for the hothouses. So, I give it 100% that we'll have new nuclear and Mr. Bruce Big Guy will take over Darlington. (The timing is my out on this, probably when Toronto condo prices crash.)
*the old seismic design basis could break a block of solid steel. The only way they got through it was to twaddle with the results (I mean that in a totally not libalish way, Mr. Big). Some people might use words stronger than 'twaddle', but not me! And they boosted that up, and are using young people with modern analysis. Now we're talking solid titanium.
**Mr. Big will be smart enough to bring in two or three Chinese Westinghouse reactors, along with poaching all the builders. They've gone cool on this in China. At solar electricity rates, the pension funds will go ape-shit.