Saturday, December 27, 2014

Linux - Tor

I went through the whole Tor thing, as outlined in the Register.

I installed Tails on usb disk.  I think I am now running a Tor relay, but it's difficult to prove.  The network looks active.  I used some of the default bandwidths, and I'm happy I have unlimited on my Bell plan.  I'll see if it interferes with the spoose's MS Skipey thing, whatever the company uses.  I know that doing a full download mucks up the Bell connection.

Using Tor and a Tor relay adds great confusion to the NSA, since encrypted connections become commonplace.  If the boring people don't use it for boring stuff, then those that use it are flagged.  I hope it gives Bell's hopes for deep packet searching conniption fits.

Update:  None of this works well with your mobile phone, since these things are designed to leak information all over the place.  We'll have to wait for Linux phones.  :)

Update2:  The Tor relay takes a while to validate.  There was a recent attack on Tor, and this feature saved them.

Update3:  Now running full blast with 33 circuits open.  Take that, poutine!

Friday, December 26, 2014

Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 7

Longest series ever.  I've been writing in snatches between festivities.

Natural seeps may be very well and good, but what if you want to create a New New Madrid in a hurry?  You inject surface water directly into the Precambrian and upset all that balance.  The fascinating thing about earthquakes is their chaotic nature.  And you never know the initial conditions.  Yeah, that makes them impossible to predict on the fine scale required for humans.  You can predict that if you inject you will get earthquakes, but you'll  never know how big and how soon.

Initial conditions depend on earthquakes past, and so a minor seep such as Virginia can almost instantly produce an M6 from a dammed lake.  The M5.6 Oklahoma happened quickly, as well.  That is to say, the fault was all primed up and Ready to Rumble.

On the other hand, you can have something as slow as the main OK mechanism.  Massive injection of billions of barrels of water has only brought things to M4.8 so far.  That means the area may be generally destressed.  Earthquakes are also fascinating in that they are self-similar (fractal) between two limits - the very large, and the very small (grain size).  So, if you looked at a picture of fractured rock, you wouldn't be able to tell the scale, unless there was a scale, like a person standing in front of it.  Some satellite photos look like they were taken with a magnifying glass.

This self-similarity produces the classic straight log-log plot between Magnitude and frequency of occurrence. So, there are a lot of little earthquakes for one of the next bigger size.  The slope of this curve is related to fractal roughness.  OK has a high fractal roughness, and California is probably very low.

OK has developed a full mechanism, just like New Madrid.  We just don't know how long it will take to get to M7's.  At any time we could have a 7 or it may take decades.  The same is true for the natural seeps, such as Toronto.  Who knows?  It would be prudent for all these areas to have a good earthquake plan, but they just go on and party.  Ce la vie!

The End

ps. I just put a complete version, with links, in Geofish Clarified.

Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 6

So now we know we have these huge megathrusts forming bands of good and bad rock.  Good rock is what we drilled with our deep holes at Darlington -- high stress, extremely tight.  The rock came out in 10 foot solid sections that you could use as baseball bats.  No fractures, no water.

Bad rock is right at the faults, and it is fractured all the way up.  It is what was chosen for the Bruce Black Hole.  The fractures go all the way down to the Moho.  Recent studies have show there are oceans of billion year old water in those fractures, along with bacteria, probably from the very beginning of life.  A whole ecosystem, probably as alien to us as anything on Mars.

All this water lives in perfect harmony with the rock, since it's been there long enough.  Once in a while there have been huge earthquakes to accommodate the shifting of the plates, but the whole thing is in chemical equilibrium.

The one thing that disturbs this happiness is a seep of fresh water.  This water is aggressive to the strong points of quartz that are holding the little NW stress that remains.  Over the millennia, natural seeps have caused local earthquake hotspots along the megathrusts.  We are mainly aware of New Madrid, because it happened in historic times, and it still has aftershocks.  There could be many other spots.

Seeps happen when lots of surface water accumulates.  Lakes Erie and Ontario have them, and there are some in Quebec, wherever that is.  :)  New Madrid is still sucking in the water.


Thursday, December 25, 2014

Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 5

So, for a few hundred million years we had this Precambrian surface which was not flat, as some people would have you believe.  Then the plates shifted over a cold spot and the whole thing sank beneath the sea.  Although silicates are less dense than the ocean basalts, they will sink if cold enough.  They just sank enough for shallow seas, which built up sediments and sank more.

This is all the limestone and such, full of little critters.  The Appalachian collision shoved up more sediments, and everybody forgot about the Precambrian, which held us up.  :)

The amazing thing about the Precambrian is that it takes all the strain of the plate moving about.  There have been several collisions and separations, and that rock keeps us alive.  Of course, we humans are only a blip on the geological time scale, but we should respect our elders.  The last Atlantic collision had all the continents together and it was a great time for the Earth's heat flow to cook out all that buried carbon dioxide and water.  The result was the dinosaurs and a very hot world.  The Precambrian was stretched to its limit.

All that heat, and then the continents separated to form the Atlantic.  NA slid to a colder spot, which is like pressing a thumb on a beachball, and it settled into a dimple.  It uniformly compressed the Precambrian on all sides, yet only a strong NE-SW trending horizontal stress remains.  What could have happened?  Does anybody in the USGS think of this?

It's all in the grain of ENA, which is strong down the spine of the megathrusts, and weak in the NW direction.  In order for the stress to be so strongly polarized, a lot of displacement had to happen in the NW direction.  This crunched up the Paleozoic over the megathrusts, and caused things such as the gigantic Paleo-collapse up at the Bruce Black Hole, which has conveniently been left out in the reports.

Now we are left with the strong NE horizontal stress, which kills us when we have a water seep such as New Madrid.....

--Christmas dinner - too much to drink...have to stop.

Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 4

Now, Arkansas and Ohio did not do their bit for Science since they chickened out at M4 and banned direct injection into the Precambrian.  As well, we had the Virginia earthquake, which was very poorly covered by seismometers, but the later aftershocks showed a NE trend, and some association with a dammed lake.

Fortunately, we have other desperate states who are dying to prove my theories.  If we are very lucky, they should go all the way to a New Madrid M7+, since they just can't give up all that money.

For the final bit, we digress into the whole story about the Precambrian under our feet.  This a new story to most, since all the geological people ignore the deep structure, and when they plot earthquakes and faults, they stick to the shallows.

So, billions of years ago we had our Earth and oceans.  The Galactic Seeders had come and gone, leaving a rich bacterial ecosystem.  The amazing thing is that as the plates subducted with all the water, it cooked some rocks that were rich in silicates, and wanted to float like pond scum on the dark basalts.  This scum became our continents, and North America was slowly built up by having huge island arc complexes, with their fresh silicates smashing up and pasting themselves like a big snowball rolling down the hill.

A billion years ago when this was in full swing, Toronto was under mountain ranges, up to the limits of rock strength.  They were built up by sliding on huge megathrusts that extended in straight lines, NE to SW.  You can see this type of linear range in the Rockies.  The pressure eased off and these mountains slid back down.  Eventually, erosion carved the landscape into something you see up in Cottage Country.


Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 3

As I was saying, Arkansas was my 'Eureka" moment.  We had observed that all the earthquakes in southern Ontario were under the lakes.  Thus, all our historical seismicity was wrong.  It was simple:  No water, no earthquakes.

Fracking was going ballistic, and there was something like 2 million gallons of water per hole.  All of this had to go some place, and that was deep underground.  Arkansas had the advantage of being close to New Madrid, so it was partially covered by a intense seismic monitor array.

I noticed right away that they were getting earthquakes, and they were forming a pattern.  The first earthquakes were lining up on a NW line, and then came a very long NE line.  This was the exact same pattern as New Madrid!  It was also the proper pattern for rock failure along the megathrusts, which have a very strong NE direction in horizontal stress.  Yahoo!  

There were some injection earthquakes in Ohio, but the lack of seismic monitoring meant no clear patterns.

There had been the M5.6 Oklahoma earthquake, but I was not following the pattern at that time.  In retrospect, the reprocessed locations showed a very strong NW line.

Thus, the rock was acting as though it were in a giant rock testing machine.  Using the testing machine analogy, all California earthquakes were acting as if there were a very weak, lubricated cut in the rock sample, and the machine turned on.  As the rock was compressed, the fault slid.

On the other hand, the earthquakes in ENA were completely the opposite;  they acted as though the rock sample was compressed and you were weakening the rock with acid.  There was a major difference in the way the surrounding rock acted, and those California guys didn't have a clue.


Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 2

In those old days, the company was divided into the "Force", and "Darkness".  You can guess what side I was on - Design and Development.  We lived on debt for new plants, and all that shut down.  Everything went dark when when the 'Factory' took over -- all they were interested in were Soviet production numbers at any cost.  You can see the result with the early destruction of Darlington, and no hope with the refurb.

I had one last hurray when we drilled the famous 'Fault under Pickering'.  Just like California, somebody put great stock into a visible surface fault.  We drilled it and found out it was only shallow and the main bedrock was undisturbed.  I knew all this, but I needed the money.  :)

My last days were under great depression, and I never did anything interesting, but I retired as soon as I could, and it took two years to heal.  But then I felt great, and decided to review all this in order to clarify the great mystery of ENA earthquakes.

What finally woke me up was the injection of fracking wastes in Arkansas.

-whoops, present time!

Year-End Summary of Eastern Earthquakes - Part 1

Here I am, sitting all alone on Christmas Day, very early, waiting for everybody to wake up.  The earthquakes in ENA have always been a mystery, mainly because very little effort was put into studying them.  Over the 30-40 years I've been looking at this, Eastern North America (ENA) was the poor cousin to California.  Even in Canada, all the effort was on the giant Quebec City zone, and 30 years ago nobody looked at Toronto and such.

I managed to change that in Canada, at least.  We were looking at new nuclear plants, and I couldn't live with this lack of interest.  It allowed wild theories to come up and take over the media (yes, they were interested in this at one time when they had money).  They were making up 'magnetic lineaments' and we had the famous 'Fault Under Pickering'.  So, to my great satisfaction, I drank from the firehose of wasted company money and extracted a small percentage for seismic studies.  When put outside for the academic community, this was a huge Christmas package.

I always partnered with notable academics and had no control over the output.  The only influence I had was to direct the studies, since somebody had to do it.  Dealing with academics is like herding cats.  I didn't do any of these 'bespoke studies' as consultant reports, as was done with the Bruce Black Hole.  For this type of study a famous consultant once told us "Tell me what you want to hear, and I'll see if I can live with it.".  

I engineered the seismic monitoring to be unstoppable and totally open.  Nobody can hide inconvenient earthquakes, and we did the best monitoring in ENA.  With all the other studies, I was not so lucky, since we got poleaxed by the NDP election, and all such records were slated to be destroyed.  I hid them in my desk and eventually could get them back into official records where they could be lost forever.  A portion of the studies made it out to papers securely hidden behind the 'paywall' where the Bruce Thing could safely ignored them.

These were all the geophysics studies we made before we were shut down.  They went into vast government archives, but we all know what happened to that under Harper.  These studies told me everything I wanted to know about the mechanism of eastern earthquakes.  All the scientists involved were muzzled by having no Harper money, and went into retirement.  They are all running their farms.

These marvellous studies clearly showed the role of Precambrian megathrusts, and the massive earthquake activity around Toronto.  The seismic monitoring showed the importance of fresh water seeping into the faults.  We flew a magnetic study so detailed, it showed all the individual farmer transformers, and shipwrecks in Lake Ontario.  Nobody has ever duplicated that anywhere.

-whoops, people are waking up, good-bye.

Addition - There are 7 parts.  I've put all together on the Geofish Clarified site.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Shutting Down for Christmas

Once again, I've gone a bit too manic on this, and I am suffering the shudders.  For sure, if there is an M5 in Okieland, then I'll wake up.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Seismic Hazard for Ontario Nuclear Plants Triples

I have confession to make.  When I first installed all those seismometers (along with people who knew what they were doing, I couldn't install a lightbulb), I did it so we could find out more about the true seismic hazard of the region.  I was convinced that the truth would set me free, in that we would localize the really big earthquakes to the Hamilton fault.  The trouble with the old fashioned probability analysis was it would slide a big earthquake right under the plant as you went to lower odds.  So, there was a huge jump in ground motion for every probability decade, ie. 10-5 was much larger than 10-4.  This was unsafe, since the basic premise of seismic design was that if you designed linearly for a higher probability (10-3), you'd be good for graceful decay at the rarer levels (ie. no horrible cliff).  Seismic is not supposed to blow out everything until 10-7 or there about, whatever that means.

Now, the geology shows that I was wrong.  Ohio, Arkansas and Oklahoma show us that water activates all the megathrusts, and water has been seeping down under the lakes for thousands of years.  You can see the two strongest linears in Lake Ontario.  To me, this is horrifying.

We have to add this to the fact that the lake sediments look like they were churned by multiple earthquakes.  Thank god that was suppressed by Harper-science!  And the regulator toadies just smile.

I could list some mitigating factor about seismic wave stress and all that, but my scenario of nuclear destruction, especially for Pickering has become a bit more probable.  I write this because all of Canada is in on this reality distortion and the geology will be dismissed, just like they dismiss it for the Bruce Black Hole. That keeps me out of trouble.  :)  And it's no use for you remaining homeless newshounds, everything is locked up tight.

**Did you know I heard that they sent a group of intense dummies honourable very old engineers to look again at the Maple reactors and figure out what went wrong.  That place is an absolutely pure Seismic Death Trap, and they didn't put in the internal bracing that the Koreans did, which in turn saved the Korean Maple because it eliminated the internal distortion that caused the Canadian problem.  Sort of like an earthquake while operating.  :)

Answers:  One question from g+.  Yes these are the megathrusts that caused New Madrid and Oklahoma.  Keep those questions rolling.  Any hint that the Big Canada Putins are reading this, will send me scurrying under the nearest rock.  Links:  Megathrust    Nuclear Scenario
Please note that the Pickering threat is mitigated by 'time at risk', in other words:  "Thank God it's shutting down."

New Nuclear Plants Back on the Table

I give it a 1% because Big Bruce Guy (I'll build a nuclear plant anywhere) has bought a house near Darlington.  It all hinges on how much he'll soak the Liberals for.  If I were him I'd buy a house for odds as low as 1 in 1000.  If nothing happens, then sell it at no loss, but something does, you couldn't buy a big fancy house for love or money.

I go with this article.

And this picture.

Well, come on, all you fracking protesters, and Suziki-pipeline protesters.  Huge solar farmers (farms) are cutting down forests in Ontario.  And windmill farms give us headaches.  As well, all these stupid things only work in Ontario at 5% capacity.  They will never get back the energy that was pumped into them.

Even our dear Liberals may have, or might get somebody who can do the math.  As well, the Darlington refurb is trying to defy physics*, and Pickering is gasping.  What to do?  What to do?

Oh yeah, we can rely on US fracking for cheap natural gas.  Only that each little bit of that gas involves injecting waste water deep under Oklahoma where all the deep bacteria are getting slaughtered.  You know they will fight back with earthquakes.  Exactly 5 years from now they will get M6 earthquakes, and 5 years from that the M7's.  But natural gas production will drop faster than the Russian Rouble.

I don't think organic farming will save us all.  Even for that all those organic farms need electricity for the hothouses.  So, I give it 100% that we'll have new nuclear and Mr. Bruce Big Guy will take over Darlington.  (The timing is my out on this, probably when Toronto condo prices crash.)

*the old seismic design basis could break a block of solid steel.  The only way they got through it was to twaddle with the results (I mean that in a totally not libalish way, Mr. Big).  Some people might use words stronger than 'twaddle', but not me!  And they boosted that up, and are using young people with modern analysis.  Now we're talking solid titanium.

**Mr. Big will be smart enough to bring in two or three Chinese Westinghouse reactors, along with poaching all the builders.  They've gone cool on this in China.  At solar electricity rates, the pension funds will go ape-shit.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Annual Vault Scam

I get something like this every year, I don't know why.

Dear Person, I am saddened to hear of the death of my non-existent relatives.  Perhaps they will join all my other non-existent relatives in non-existent heaven.  Please give the money to those too unfortunate to have such a cornucopia.

Lunch with the old gang

It's been a year since we had lunch together, the old gang from the old company which shall always remain nameless.  I never laughed so hard since the last time, since things are 10 times worse.  Nearly all the old guys I knew will never retire, so you have a bunch of 70 year-olds doing engineering analysis the same way they did it 50 years ago.  I love it!

As well, I published a long time ago that they could never do a Dar---ton refurb with the same seismic assumptions from 40 years ago.  Well, they are doing that, but 30% more.  The smart money is on the toilet.  :)

That's all I'll leak out, the other stuff is much worse.  I'll laugh for a long time.

Further fun:  Apparently the big guy from Bruce has bought a house near a certain refurb and new nuclear plant site.  He was successful in getting twice the rate for Bruce, and if he can get 4 times the rate on Lake Ontario, then we may see something new, all owned by pipelines and pension funds.  So, all you hot speculators, drive up the house prices way east of Toronto.  :)

Monday, December 15, 2014

Tiger Rice Cooker at Costco

There's only one Costco that has a rice cooker and that's in Markham.  I don't know why...

Anyway this is a Japanese model that forces the Japanese lifestyle on you.  It said it did porridge right on the box, so I tried some oatmeal.  What a mess!  They mean Japanese Rice Porridge.

This machine is absolutely wonderful.  It makes plain old Costco Basmanti rice into something wonderful, while using the 'slow' setting.  We made some Chinese sticky rice dim sum in banana leaves, and that was fantastic.  Well, I ran into another Japanese lifestyle thing when I was steaming the sticky buns, and I wanted to steam another one.  Well, the smart little bastard didn't want to steam twice in a row.  I tried a lot of things, and finally took the first unit back.  And the second one did the exact same thing!

So for this one I phoned their support. The lady said: "What do you mean you tried to steam twice in a row?  I've never done that."  What, is this against Japanese culture?  They have it in stone tablets "Thou shalt not steam twice in a row."  I finally figured out to fool the smart-ass machine by starting a regular cook cycle for a minute, and then steaming.  Take that!

Actually, it may also be "Never start with hot water, because we don't have running hot water in Japan."  But since I tried two things, I'll never know.

Update:  I now know why Japan was never a software powerhouse.  I still can't get it to reliably start steaming, I think it is two things - cold water and start something else first.  But you have to put your head down on it to see if it is starting, why would the display show anything important?  That confirms that Japan and France have no hope, too isolated.  :)  I liken it to why Linux will never go big on the desktop, all the programmers love their command lines.  It's a good thing all the car makers do this stuff in California.  :)

Update2:  Yeah, I separated it.  You must always start with tap cold water for steaming, even though you'd think that hot water would be faster.  Otherwise it just sits there, smiling, pretending to understand your request.  :)

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Oklahoma earthquakes - Record 2 4's in a day

Sure as death and taxes, we know that the party in Okie-land just gets better and better.  This was a M4.0 and M4.3 in one day.  But I need an M4.5 right near the city in order to get a solution for a thrust.  Things are starting to pick up in rate, so I think we can do it.

Whoops!  They did give me a solution.

This is a thrust!  Where I didn't really expect one, but the felt intensity is low, so it may be deep.

Organic Sprouts

It's amazing the technology in this now.  I got cheap Chinese LED grow lights that just give the reds and blues, and whatever to produce great m-buds.  But it works great for sprouts.  These are pea sprouts, and when they get 6" high you cut them.  I'm also getting a grow tent for shelves which has a Mylar lining.

For the sake of Mr. Harpering, I have written this as the 'cover' for all this equipment.  Just like bittorrent is used for software updates, all this grow equipment is used for legitimate organic sprouts.  :)

For organic farming, in general, I have this question:  "Where are you getting your nitrogen?".  There are no happy ways for this.  But with legumes, they fix their own nitrogen, and everything comes packed into the pea.  We just assume that the source is organic, with with seeds, you just don't want them treated with pesticides and such, so you source 'organic'.

Outside, in a cold Canadian Spring, I don't have any luck with organic seeds.  Soak them in whatever, you wouldn't be able to detect it in the final product with a mass spectrometer.

Linux - Security


All the MS virus guys want to go after Linux and Android.  The truth is that these things are probably 10 times more secure than a standard Windows setup.  Nearly all Linux and Android exploits involve carefully downloading a bad program, or a tailored attack on a major target.  As opposed to Windows, where a simple click is sufficient.

I tell everybody that if you have Windows use Chrome or Firefox, and never use Outlook.  Nobody listens.  Every company that has executives using Windows at airports and such, are susceptible to Sony-type attacks, but they take a lot of genius time, so maybe you'll be spared.  Have fun!

Clarification:  No matter what sort of virus screener you have, the Windows - IE - Outlook combination is still susceptible to the 'new trick', after, like, 30 years.  Mix it up a little and you are better off.

Friday, December 12, 2014 Sucks

I had big hopes for these people.  They have carefully adjusted all their prices to match but with free delivery and none of that Prime stuff.  For some reason amazon gave me Prime for free, since they know I'd cut them off in an instance if they charged.  I buy a lot from them.

Well, can afford free delivery because they don't deliver.  Even though they promise delivery in two days, like Amazon, the order stays stuck in "Order in Progress" forever.  I guess I'll give them a week before I cancel and go to Amazon.

Update:  I did complain through their on-line form, but no response.

Update2:  Since I am getting no response and no deliveries, I upgrade "Sucks" to "Frau - Misleading"

Update3:  Finally shipped a week later.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Linux - normalize-audio

A great little tool for this time of year.  I'm sure you have a whole pile of Christmas cd's that you bought with money that goes to our fine record cartel.  They would want you to buy all over again, but we know you've put them on your Linux system, where you don't have to worry about Sonie rootkisses.  :)

Each album has a different volume, and if you want to play them all together at a low background level, you better put them all into a directory and normalize them.  This is done with 'normalize-audio' which can be directly installed by your usual update process.

Just go into that massive directory and type 'normalize-audio *'.  It's magnificent!


I'm going to try this for vlc.

Are you constantly adjusting the volume in movies? Music, explosions, gunshots, etc. too loud? Conversations too quiet? If this is your problem, read on. I am combining information found in multiple threads for convenience.

Navigate to Tools>Preferences. Select Audio. Check the "Normalize volume to:" box and set the value to 1.6
Now switch to Advanced view by selecting "All" in the "Show Settings" box at the bottom left
Expand "Audio" and highlight "Filters". Check the "Volume Normalizer" box. You should see "normvol" added to the text box at the bottom
Expand "Filters" and highlight "Volume Normalizer". Set "Number of audio buffers" to 10 and "Maximal volume level" to 1.6
Hit the "Save" button at the bottom
Restart VLC, as settings are not applied until restart. As I did this in increments, you may have to apply one step, save, and restart VLC between for menu options to be present. I haven't tested applying all settings at once, but I believe you can do this all at once.
Double-check all settings are correct after VLC is restarted.

Whoops.  The vlc method is just good for a single track, like if you don't want the house to rumble during the battle scenes, but you want the speech up to understand the English accents.

Another day, another M4.1 Oklahoma earthquake

So far this earthquake is completely unfelt.  Adding in the position, I would say this is a deep normal (tension) earthquake.  Ho hum...

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Earthquake Water

Today, the water main down the street really blew, flooding everywhere.  This is a perfect time to review our earthquake procedures.

Any city has hundreds of spots where the water mains are on the verge of busting.  An earthquake will make these all go at once.  Expect no water for 3 days.  By the third day we should have trucked-in water, but some areas may be out for a week.

A good planning scenario is the 1 in 500 earthquake, which is the type that has devastated many a city.  For a city such as Los Angeles this is an M8, and for Toronto, and most of the Eastern Seaboard, this is a near-field M6.  Nuclear plants should plan for an M7 on a megathrust.

Our (Toronto) M6 should blow out the electricity grid, and shut down all the nuclear stations.  They aren't prepared and it'll surprise the hell out of them.  I really have to think a lot of gas lines will rupture.

So, today our main lesson is tap water, of which I have none right now.  Immediately turn off the hot water tank, you'll need that water.  Everybody will instinctively flush the toilets anyway, so tape the handles.  If it's yellow, let it mellow.  You should always have 3 days of drinking water.  I use a water cooler/heater, so I always keep a spare jug or two.  If anything starts to rumble, get another one!

Once the hot water tank cools you can tap it for flush water (or drinking water if you didn't listen to the above).  Crack open both the kitchen taps.  This will also tell you when the water is back on (and vents the lines so you can drain the hot water tank).  Expect the first water to be dirty.  To tap the hot water tank, you need a medium bucket, and a slot-head screw driver.  You should do this regularly anyway, since the first water is black as pitch.

I think the gas will be back before the electricity (a black start is difficult), so I have a mechanical gas fireplace for heat.  A winter earthquake will be horrible.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Seismic Hazard and Dam Safety


The stupidest thing I ever saw at the old company was their dam safety program.  Now BC Hydro is going down the same path.  The massive report that employed every seismic person in the world was a seismic hazard analysis, and what we want here is seismic risk.  One of the first things I did at Wikipedia was to nail down those definitions.

Seismic hazard is just the plotting of expected ground motions.  The big no-no is that they still work with accelerations, as though they meant something in physics.  Peak acceleration is not tied down by physical reality.  Just as bad, is the next step -- response spectra in acceleration.  Nobody wants to fix this fallacy because they all make too much money on it.

In Ontario, the acceleration zoomed up with the new calculations, mainly because accelerometers showed very high accelerations for locations on rock, and in the near-field of the epicentre.  If they were ever smart enough to put down accelerometers in Oklahoma, they would get a surprise with those shallow thrusts, right in the hammer zone.

So, at high frequencies the acceleration is very high, but there is no physics here.  In Ontario, all the dams are solid concrete on solid rock.  If you calculate the response spectrum, you will find the fundamental is at a high frequency.  Thus, combine the high response spectrum of the hazard study, and you will find that your conventional seismic analysis has the thing sliding down the river.  Millions of dollars were spent in anchoring these things down.

As well, if you measure the uplift pressure in solid rock underneath the dam, you will find it really high.  The dam is being lifted up!  Again, the wrong physics.

Believe me when I say none of this is real.  The PGV is very low and nothing will happen to those dams.  The poured concrete has a permeability orders of magnitude above the rock, and acts as a drain -- no uplift.

BC Hydro will now have their fun.

Friday, December 5, 2014

Oklahoma - a tale of two earthquakes

Just now we have had an earthquake of M4.0 that almost nobody felt.

This was a mostly normal earthquake (tension) with about half being shear.

But, earlier, we had an M4.2 that was strongly felt.

This was thrust, with a very small hammer zone.  No fault plane solution could be calculated.  Even a 3.6 thrust had a greater narrow intensity than the recent 4.0

Now, the USGS believes that these induced earthquakes have less bang for the buck.  They should be in the hammer zone when we get the 5 thrust.  :)

Thursday, December 4, 2014

GM and others flee Ontario

In the news today, the US car companies won't even take Ontario bribes.  There is no investment coming in, and they are easing themselves out.

It's totally the unions.  Used to the worst unions were in Michigan, and the companies escaped to Ontario.  Now Michigan has gone anti-union and the investment is flooding back.  As my union buddy once told me, the difference in union wages is insignificant on a the price of a car, so why the big fuss?

It has to with the whole corruption of a union shop, since unions are true monopolies and there is no restriction on their behaviour.  My friends on the assembly line told me the union forced management to make the cafeteria the same auto union, and from then on the food was terrible.

With great painful experience I can tell you that no bright engineer can survive in a union shop.  It's not the wages, it's all the rules, regulations, and stultifying management.  The horrible management is a defensive response to all the grievances, arbitrations and such.  Nothing intelligent can get done in such a place.

Gross stupidity does not make the workers any happier.  I was told of a wiring station on the assembly line that was nearly impossible for a human.  An extremely bright person could have one look at it and fix it.  But that wasn't going to happen, since productivity is seen as a job threat.

Don't forget that the top 10% of bright people are ten times more productive than the middle bunch.  If you, as an industry, can't attract them, then you are doomed.  And bad food drives everybody away.  :)

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Powerful thrusts hit Oklahoma (earthquakes)

M3.6  with a ridiculous intensity map for this size of earthquake.

I'm quite sad that the USGS isn't producing the fault plane solutions.  The 6 may be out of line, but there are a lot of 4's.  Normally a 3.6 is weak.  Some of these higher intensities may be a result of previous weakening.

If these are thrusts along what I have identified as a main thrust fault, then this is just the beginning.  We've already had a few of these quite a while ago.  I've been expecting lots of M5 thrusts for almost a year now, but I'd settle for M4.5.  :)

A big Christmas present for those injecting, since there will be a drop in pressure, and the commensurate increase in volume.  An M5 thrust will affect the whole organism.

Update:  After bugging the usgs forever, I have come to the conclusion that the recent shallow thrust M4.2 can't have a fault plane solution, probably because there are not enough distant stations.  We'll wait for the big ones, then.

Update2:  M4.0 in an isolated area up north.  Probably strike-slip.  No felt responses yet.  Down to 3.7, and must have been really deep, since practically nobody felt it.

Update3:  Interesting that a weak M4, normal strike-slip gets a solution right away, but the shallow thrust never did.

Monday, December 1, 2014

December - Male Depression Month

I'm making that up, after Movember, since I think this takes more men than prostate cancer, which is practically cured now, since they have diagnostics and early treatment with the radioactive beads.

Male depression has no blood test, and a complete aversion.  All the worst cases I've seen spout the words "I ain't seeing no shrink!".  The toll on family and kids is huge, and we must throw all cases of Fordianism (alcohol, drugs) into this.

In my family of German stock, we have the genetics of people being 'Intellectual Depressives'.  This has always ended with a brilliant poet or artist killing themselves at an early age.  I pick December since this is the cruellest month for Northern Depressives.

A Depressive is incapable of diagnosing himself, so you have to do it for him.  There are countless web sites giving questionnaires that do a good job.  Then present him with the facts, and a big gun to his head, to go to the doctor.  You've got to do this before he goes down the 'self medication' route of alcohol.  Most likely a small amount of a simple pill is all he needs.  

You really need the pills to climb out of the hole.  There is no 'buck up' here.  Once you are out, then you can do things to reduce the pills, like light therapy and melatonin.  The pills are needed because a Depressive has brain changes, that need a lot of 'force' to reverse.

If you are under control, then December brings challenges, mainly the parties and drinking.  Treat alcohol as being liquid gold.  Drink fine wine like liqueur.  Make a shooter of half vodka, and half Christmas Port, and fully believe it is the world's most expensive Scotch, and sip it.  It has a magnificent finish that lasts a long time.  The pleasure really boosts serotonin.

M4.7 Arizona earthquake, rugged territory

The USGS isn't giving a fault plane solution, and I don't think there is much coverage, but this is one of those random events that happens in relatively stable geology.  I did get a streetview.

Very mountainous, so you'd expect a lot of internal stress adjustments.  The felt area shows a uniform pattern of very low ground motions.

This is what you'd expect for something that is more than 20 km deep.  I'm doubting they'll see another one soon.

Update:  Normal (tension), the least of ground motions.